The start of Global Cooling



More evidence, more thoughts on Global Cooling



The graph below, from NOAA Climate.gov, confirms what I said in my previous article on the coming of global cooling – Global Cooling will start next Spring?
i.e. El Niño causes temperature peaks (red bars).

NOAA chart on Niño-Niña flavored months
Source: How will El Niño affect 2015’s placement among the warmest years on record?



On the above chart we can see clearly the plateau in global temperatures from 1998 todate, even though the dataset used by this US government agency is not wholly reliable, is subject to manipulations, and generally shows more warming than actually occurred – whereas the first graph from our previous article is based on satellite data.


In a release from University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), we read: “early indications are that 2015 will end as the third warmest year in the satellite temperature record, behind 1998 and 2010. That is the early indication. Typically, the warmest temperatures are seen in the second year of an El Niño warming event, although there have been exceptions. If the typical pattern holds true, the second year of the current El Niño would be expected to bring more record high temperatures in 2016, perhaps including a new record high temperature for the year.”
Source: Satellite data shows globe will stay below 1.5°C target
Also reported by Warming under UN target


Thus, “if the typical pattern holds true”, Global Cooling would start in 2017, not in 2016 as predicted in my article. So, we’ll just have to wait and see…



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Democracy to die next month at COP21 ?


Global Cooling to start next Spring?


Suspected of dishonest manipulations to show continued warming, the US Administration refuses to provide its raw data to the US Congress.  “NOAA Attempts To Hide The Pause In Global Warming: The Most Disgraceful Cover-Up Since Climategate – by James Delingpole” – see:  Breitbart, Oct. 29th

With COP21 to take place at the end of this month, dirty tricks were to be expected – in addition to the usual bad science and cooked figures on climate. How can we tell the truth, you ask, from doctored graphs and misleading articles? The answer is: Internet. When 99% of the media take their cues from the Climate Change Coalition (CCC), it is necessary to look elsewhere for honest information. We reproduce below a chart from the website of Dr Roy Spencer, one of the world’s leading climate scientists, who remains independent from the CCC. It’s a graph obtained from the satellite temperature dataset of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), a world-renowned source of climate data. Luckily for us – “we, the people” – the CCC does not control all of the datasets, yet.

2015 10 - UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2015_v6
Click on the image to enlarge.
Source: Dr Roy Spencer, University of Alabama

It is clear from this chart that the warming has reached a plateau after 1998. This happened in spite of massive increases in man-produced CO2 in China, India, Brazil etc. Let’s note as well that, in 2015, temperature is on the rise.

On the other graph below, about the Arctic and Antarctic, we note that in the years 2013 and 2014, global sea ice was back to its average level of the past three decades (red line, comparing to average 1979-2008). Here again, it is apparent that world temperatures had stopped rising, and were even starting to recede. In 2015, however, the chart shows that sea ice has been shrinking again:

global_daily_ice_area_withtrend Oct 2015Click on the image to enlarge.
Source:  data provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

This increased warmth in 2015 is due to El Niño, which made a strong comeback this year. According to the specialists, NOAA, it is expected to last into Spring 2016: ENSO prediction – Climate Prediction Center – NOAA

This leads many climate scientists to believe that, with El Niño out of the way in early 2016, Global Cooling will start to be felt soon thereafter. In fact, cooling may be happening already, but its effects are masked by El Niño on much of the globe.

It must be noted that solar radiation, as measured by sunspots, is weaker than it has been in the past 100 years. It has returned to the low levels of the early XXth century, when temperatures were about 1ºC lower than today. To see the evolution of solar radiation over 4 centuries, see the graph below (not updated since July 2006):

400 years of sunspot observations
Click on the image to enlarge.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png

If we are correct to assume (with Svensmark and many other climate scientists) that the sun, not CO2, is the main driver of climate, then we are most probably about to return to 1900 temperature levels, about 1ºC lower than today.

Since the above graph was published (2006), solar activity has been weaker, continuing the downward trend shown about year 2000. Here is what the present 11-year cycle looks like (solar cycle 24):

2015 10 solar cycle 24 sunspot number
Source: Space weather prediction center – NOAA

The chart clearly shows that:
– Cycle 24, to the right of the graph, is about half as strong as Cycle 23, to the left, i.e. fewer sunspots, lesser radiation emitted by the sun.
– Cycle 24 has peaked, and we are now in its descending, cooler phase.

How long this new period of Global Cooling would last is anyone’s guess: a decade or two, a century or two, or 100,000 years if it worsens and turns into a new Ice Age – God forbid. Obama, Merkel, and the whole CCC are probably aware of this, but they will continue to act as if Global Warming were the threat. They are not about to admit they were wrong, 30 days before securing a deal in Paris that will mean the loss of sovereignty for western democraties. Global governance is the name of the game, with a transfer of power from we, the people, to the UN and the CCC. From thereon in, many predict a bureaucratic tyranny will gradually take away our freedoms.

Ronald Reagan had warned about it: Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction.”

Lord Christopher Monckton, who was policy advisor to Margaret Thatcher, has been trying to warn us over and over again. Here is an amazing video, where he correctly predicted in 2014 that Abbott (Australia) and Harper (Canada) would be removed from office, to pave the way for Global Governance (read: “green” tyranny): Our last year of freedom?

Will we bid farewell to Liberty in December, at COP21? China and other BRICS countries may sign with their fingers crossed behind their backs, or not sign at all, but western countries, led by the CCC, are poised to sign away their sovereignty with the will to surrender it for good. Thereafter, the threat of economic sanctions by other countries will keep governments in line. There will be no way out, as warned by Monckton. It would be a check mate situation.

Helena Greenberg
helena.greenberg33@hotmail.com



Europe’s economic suicide


frank-cotham-it-s-always-cozy-in-here-we-re-insulated-by-layers-of-bureaucracy-new-yorker-cartoon
Is bureaucracy killing the European Union?


From Roger Helmer’s blog


EU Energy Policy is Industrial Suicide

Posted on January 21, 2015



The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Emission_Trading_Scheme was introduced in 2005 as a “Cap & Trade” scheme to reduce emissions. The theory was that the right to emit CO2 would be traded, and therefore permits would go where they were most economically useful. The price of the units would send a “signal” to the market, which would promote energy conservation and new low-carbon technologies.

It was anticipated that the price would start out around €25 a ton (a level at which very “dirty” fossil fuels like lignite would start to be squeezed out), and progress over the years to €75, which would virtually exclude all fossil fuels.

The ETS was hailed as “a market system” that would allocate a scarce resource – the right to emit CO2 — in an efficient way. In fact, for almost all of that time the price has languished below €10. It has failed to give the market signals intended. But it has created a huge administrative burden on industry, and spawned a new (and totally non-productive) business in “carbon trading”, in which many people have made a lot of money without benefitting the economy in any way.

Recognising the effective failure of the grand scheme, the EU introduced a sticking-plaster response – “back-loading”. This removed some 900 million “allowances” from the current auction round for permits, but the effect on pricing was negligible. Some member-states became so frustrated with this failure that they introduced country-specific measures (undercutting the pretence of a Single Market). One such measure was George Osborne’s “Carbon Floor Price”, introduced in April 2013, a measure which directly impacted the competitive position of UK industry against continental competitors. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/carbon-price-floor-reform

Recognising the on-going failure of the ETS programme, the EU institutions are now debating yet another sticking-plaster solution: the “Market Stability Reserve”, or MSR. http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets/reform/index_en.htm Under the Commission’s proposal, starting from 2021, with the fourth ETS trading period, 12% of the allowances in circulation would be placed in a reserve if the number of allowances in circulation two years earlier exceeds 833 million.

No one seems to recognise the irony of a “market mechanism” which requires constant regulatory intervention to achieve the price levels originally envisaged. Markets set their own prices autonomously – that’s what a market is. We now have the worst of all possible worlds – the cost of operating a market, but a price being set by repeated regulatory intervention. It’s not a real market at all. It’s simply the most expensive and cumbersome method yet invented to impose a tax.

The MSR has been the subject of heated debate in the parliament, and the battle lines are drawn. The left and the greens are keen to impose the MSR as soon as possible, and want to bring it forward to 2017. Those who understand Europe’s competitive position in the world (and that includes UKIP) don’t want it at all.

On the industry side, a similar split is emerging. Energy suppliers want the MSR, as the only mechanism available to enable them to achieve the emissions targets the EU has set out. And they are confident that they can pass on the higher costs – forgetting that many of their most energy-intensive customers will move – indeed are already moving – out of the EU altogether to escape the suicidal energy policies which Brussels is imposing.

Intensive energy users, on the other hand, are in despair. Already clinging on by their finger-tips in the face of global competition, they fear that this is the coup-de-grace. In the past week I have met with the aluminium, steel and petroleum refining industries. They all tell the same story: EU production in decline, plants closing, jobs lost, imports rising. We are exporting production and jobs and investment, outside the EU altogether. And emissions. Often this activity goes to jurisdictions with lower environmental standards, leading to higher emissions. In steel, imports can represent twice the emissions per ton compared to EU production. In petroleum refining, it’s plus 35%.

Aluminium has lost 42,000 jobs since 2007 (while imports rise). Steel 80,000. Petroleum refining 10,000 direct jobs, and an estimated 40,000 indirect. Chemicals, glass and cement can tell similar stories. This is what former Industry Commissioner Antonio Tajani called “an industrial massacre in Europe”.

Yesterday I attended another debate on MSR (and intervened robustly). I told them that if their MSR project failed, as previous sticking plaster solutions have done, then we should be back in the same debate again in five years’ time But if it “succeeded”, that meant higher energy prices in Europe (the steel industry reckons energy prices up 40% by 2020). More job losses. More plant closures. More industry and investment moving out of the EU. The deindustrialisation of Europe. And quite possibly, higher emissions. That’s a very strange kind of “success”.

The word “mad” is hardly strong enough. This is economic and industrial suicide. And the EU institutions are determined to press ahead with it.

Roger Helmer, MEP
https://rogerhelmermep.wordpress.com/2015/01/21/eu-energy-policy-is-industrial-suicide/



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What global warming?

 

World’s sea ice is back to 1979 levels 2014 10  Global sea ice

Click on graph to enlarge

Source: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg


When scientists are lying in order to keep their jobs, the way to stay informed, not disinformed, is to look at the data (above).


When the data is tampered with (remember Climategate and the “hide the decline” (of temperatures) scandal?) the way to proceed is to evaluate the severity of winter with your own senses, and to take your own notes.


Resist the lies!




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The Green Blob


The Daily Mail reveals the conspiracy


For this IS indeed a conspiracy: one to ruin the West, and bring about a new world order under the United Nations’ bureaucracy.



“Climate Works soon achieved its ambitious fundraising target, with a grant in 2008 of $500 million from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, which spends the fortune amassed by the co-founder of the Hewlett-Packard computer firm. This was followed by further grants of up to $100 million, and donations of $60 million from the sister Packard foundation. In July, a report by a US Senate committee named the Hewlett foundation as a key element in a ‘billionaires’ club’ which effectively controlled the environmental movement, pumping more than half a billion dollars a year into green groups around the world.


“It claimed these ‘wealthy liberals fully exploit the benefits of a generous tax code meant to promote genuine philanthropy and charitable acts’, but instead were transferring money to ‘activists’ to ‘promote shared political goals’.”

MoS2 Template Master



In comparison to the $500+ million a year funding the green propaganda (plus umpteen billions from governments), the “Global Warming Policy Forum in London, Europe’s only think-tank which is sceptical about climate science and energy policy, has an annual budget of £300,000 and employs just three people.”


Read more: —> Shadowy pro-green lobbyists working at every level of the Establishment



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German arrogance


German puritanism lashes at Australians



“German puritanism is still alive and well. An amusing example just turned up in the Sydney Morning Herald under the headline, “Merkel adviser lashes Abbott’s ‘suicide strategy’ on coal.””


“What is one to think of this latest instance of ostentatious German piety? I don’t know whether to laugh or cry. For one thing, the apparent concern about climate change in Germany is about 99% moralistic posing and 1% real.”


Read more: Of Smug Germans and Sinful Australians: Global Warming Update



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